To recap 2012, we can probably say it was the Year of Apple vs. Samsung.
Apple shows chinks in the armor and Samsung takes advantage.
Android showed huge dominance and tablets continued to grow silently in the background.
Predictions on the other hand are notoriously difficult. As the physicist Niels Bohr once wisely said,
‘Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.’ Nevertheless, it is what we are paid to do, so we’ve put our heads together and generated a number of predictions regarding 2013 – some will stray into 2014 and even 2015 – however our focus is really about the grappling with what we expect to transpire this year.
The technology industry in which mobile communications has become deeply interwoven moves massively quickly – a glance back at who led the market 4 or 5 years ago looks dramatically different than the picture we see today. In no other industry can huge fortunes change so rapidly and fundamentally; what looks like solid ground can be overturned with astonishing speed – just ask Nokia!
We have attempted to be somewhat provocative in our predictions while maintaining a rational approach – essentially the majority of developments in 2013 should already be visible or the major thematics well understood.
Rather than trying to cover a wide swathe of the industry we’ve instead focused on a few core areas and provide a series of related predictions that we think will provide some of the most significant talking points of 2013 and will likely be themes that we return to during the year. These are grouped around two topics:
Ecosystems
Devices, hardware and connectivity
* Ecosystems in 2013
- Android star turns dark:
- While maintaining its global market share lead in 2013 we predict the ecosystem will be increasingly under attack from emergent competitive ecosystems
- Samsung drives Tizen success
- Emergent OS platforms drive user experience innovation
- Windows 8 fails in PC, Windows Phone 8 surprises
* Devices and Hardware Connectivity in 2013
- Samsung consolidates market share gains
- Nokia consolidates market share losses
- Apple iPhone share peaks in 2013
- White box Tablets will drive massive growth in Android Tablets
- 2013 the year of the screen
- An increasing array of connected or connectable devices will come to market in 2013
- We believe at least one operator will announce the first ‘commercial’ LTE Advanced
- While 4G makes its presence felt worldwide, WiFi will continue to play a significant role
